Worst NFL Bad Beats: Super Bowl Highlights and Disasters

7 minute read

The NFL has seen many memorable backdoor covers. A backdoor cover or a bad beat are well-known terms among sports bettors, that signal a moment of extreme luck or disappointment. It happens when a late score in a game has a huge impact on the NFL odds and sports betting outcomes.

Despite the challenge of narrowing down such moments, we've identified the worst bad beats in NFL history. These include everything from last-second missed player prop bets to surprise point spread covers at games' ends.

An image of two NFL players clash indicates the worst NFL bad beats.

Super Bowl Worst Bad Beats

Over the past few decades, the Super Bowl has witnessed several unfortunate outcomes for those betting on these NFL games.

Here are our picks for the top three most shocking bad beats in the history of the Super Bowl:

Super Bowl 54: Chiefs vs. 49ers

Patrick Mahomes' Rushing Yards

In Super Bowl 54, the focus on Patrick Mahomes' performance extended beyond his passing prowess to his ability on the ground. Bookmakers set the line for Mahomes' rushing yards at an initial 29.5, and this later rose to 36.5 during the game.

Throughout the course of the game, Mahomes managed to rack up 44 rushing yards, which was favorable for those who bet big money on him to pass the 29.5-yard mark. However, the final moments of the game brought an unexpected twist. With the Chiefs leading by 11 points and less than a minute remaining, Mahomes performed three kneel-downs to run out the clock. Each kneel-down saw him willingly retreat several yards, cumulatively resulting in a 15-yard reduction to his total rushing yards.

This strategy secured the Chiefs' victory but also reduced Mahomes' rushing yard total to 29, resulting in losses for everyone whose NFL prop bets predictions were for him to reach 29.5 and beyond.

Super Bowl 49: Seahawks vs. Patriots

In the final moments of Super Bowl 49, the Seahawks were trailing the Patriots by four points and positioned just one yard from the end zone, when a decisive play unfolded. Instead of running the ball, Seahawks' QB Russell Wilson attempted a pass.

In a shocking turn, Patriots CB Malcolm Butler intercepted the ball, sealing a 28-24 victory for New England and another championship for Tom Brady. This unexpected move and resulting interception left Seahawks fans and bettors astonished, marking one of the most memorable finishes in NFL history.

With the game clock winding down and the Seahawks trailing by four points. The Seahawks were on the verge of not just winning the Super Bowl but also covering the spread. Instead of opting for a run, Russell Wilson attempted a pass. This decision led to a stunning interception by Patriots CB Malcolm Butler in the end zone, which secured another Super Bowl victory for the Patriots and Tom Brady. This dramatic shift stands as one of the most astonishing reversals in the history of NFL games and Super Bowl betting.

Falcons (+4.5) vs. Patriots Super Bowl 51

In a game that epitomizes the unpredictability of the NFL, the Falcons led the Patriots 28-3 late in the third quarter of Super Bowl LI, and were eyeing their first championship win. However, Tom Brady's Patriots mounted a historic comeback. Despite a missed extra point and other hurdles, New England chipped away at Atlanta's lead. Critical mistakes by the Falcons, including a pivotal sack and a holding penalty, pushed them out of field goal range, diminishing their chances of clinching the victory.

This NFL championship game is notably remembered for the Patriots' extraordinary rally from behind and the shock it caused among bettors favoring the Falcons. Missteps in the fourth quarter by Atlanta, coupled with Julian Edelman's astonishing catch, led to New England tying the game at 28-28, leaving Falcons fans and bettors in disbelief.

In overtime, the Patriots secured the win with James White's touchdown, completing an incredible comeback and delivering a heart-wrenching loss for the Falcons and their supporters.

NFL Bad Beats

Bad beats are not just confined to the Super Bowl. We’ve outlined some of the biggest betting upsets in recent NFL history.

Bills (+3.5) vs. Patriots

In the closing moments of this 1998 matchup, with the Bills leading 21-17, the Patriots faced their final play from Buffalo's 26-yard line. It seemed certain that the game would end in Buffalo's favor until a Hail Mary pass from the Patriots' quarterback fell incomplete. However, the officials flagged the Bills for a controversial defensive pass interference penalty. This decision granted New England an untimed play from the 1-yard line, which they converted into a touchdown, and took a 23-21 lead over the Bills.

The frustration among the Bills players was more than clear as they exited the field in protest, leaving behind 11 Patriots players. Opting against a traditional extra point kick, Adam Vinatieri, the Patriots' kicker, seized the opportunity to run into the end zone for a 2-point conversion. This unexpected move further dismayed Bills supporters as it made many of their bets worthless.

Falcons vs. 49ers Total 49

This 2019 matchup looked like a sure bet to finish under the total points line. Following a touchdown and successful two-point attempt, the Falcons took a 23-22 lead over the 49ers. With only moments left on the clock, San Francisco's only hope lay in executing a series of laterals in search of a last-second miracle touchdown. However, the situation turned into an unexpected positive for those who bet on the over. The 49ers' desperate attempts resulted in a fumbled lateral that the Falcons scooped up for an additional touchdown, bringing the score to 29-22. This flurry of 14 points within the final two seconds was an outcome few could have foreseen.

Patriots vs. Raiders (+3)

In a 2002 game that will be remembered for its controversial moments favoring Tom Brady and the Patriots, this particular call still leaves a sour taste among Raider supporters and those who bet on the game. With the AFC Championship on the line and the Patriots trailing by three points in the late stages, Brady attempted a pass in the snowy conditions and lost control of the ball, leading to what appeared to be a critical fumble. Raiders players and fans briefly celebrated, believing they had secured the win. However, the officials invoked the "Tuck Rule," deeming it an incomplete pass instead of a fumble.

The Patriots capitalized on this decision, evening the score at 13-13, and eventually secured a 16-13 victory in overtime. While the outcome disappointed Raiders fans and bettors, the game ending in a push was a small consolation.

Rams (-7.5) vs. Packers Total 57

This 2018 matchup is notably remembered as one of the closest NFL football games and as Ty Montgomery's final game for the Packers, and it was marked with crucial mistakes that negatively impacted those who bet on the game to exceed the total points. With a single timeout left and the clock showing 2:04, Montgomery chose to return the kickoff instead of kneeling, which would have allowed the Packers to execute a play before the two-minute warning, a situation ideally suited for Aaron Rodgers to orchestrate a drive. However, Montgomery's decision to leave the end zone resulted in a fumble deep within Rams territory.

Even with a timeout in hand, the Packers had an opportunity to regain possession with roughly 15 seconds left if they could force a three-and-out. Yet, the defense couldn’t stop the Rams' offense.

Bettors hoping for the game to exceed the total points saw a glimmer of hope as Rams RB Todd Gurley broke free on a 3rd-and-10. However, opting not to score a touchdown, Gurley downed himself inside the 5-yard line. This was a frustrating outcome for those who had backed the Rams to cover the spread.

College Football Bad Beats

College football games are also known for their unpredictability and exciting finishes. We've gathered some of the most memorable bad beats in college football history.

Bahamas Bowl: Western Kentucky vs Central Michigan (2014)

Bad Beat: Western Kentucky -2.5

The 2014 Bahamas Bowl will always be remembered for its incredible turn of events. Western Kentucky was leading comfortably at 49-14 with just under 12 minutes remaining and favorable football odds. For Western Kentucky to lose from such a commanding position seemed unlikely. However, Central Michigan was set on making a remarkable comeback.

Central Michigan managed two successive touchdowns in less than four minutes, and they capitalized on a red-zone fumble to score again with 3:06 left. They continued their rally, bringing the score within seven points with just 1:09 to play. Despite failing to recover an onside kick, they got one last chance from their own 25 with just one second to go.

What happened next was nothing short of heart-stopping. Central Michigan's attempt for a two-point conversion failed, making their heroic effort ultimately futile. For sports bettors who chose Central Michigan, this ending was unexpectedly beneficial despite the team's loss, because Central Michigan covered the spread.

Belk Bowl: Cincinnati vs Duke (2012)

Bad Beat: Duke +10

The 2012 game between Cincinnati and Duke was a roller coaster for bettors. Early on, Duke surged to a 16-0 lead, a dream start for those who had taken Duke with the points. However, Cincinnati responded with 27 unanswered points. Duke managed to tie the game at 34, but with 44 seconds left, they were down by seven.

An intense moment saw quarterback Sean Renfree hit hard, culminating in Duke's demise and a bitter moment for those betting on them.

South Carolina Favored by 3.5 Against Mississippi State

In 2012, South Carolina was expected to win by 3.5 points against Mississippi State, a team that had yet to secure a victory in the SEC for the season. This expectation led many in the betting community to place their bets on SC. With just four seconds remaining and leading 14-10, South Carolina found themselves on a crucial 4th down at their own 4-yard line.

In a strategic move, QB Connor Shaw retreated into the end zone as the clock ran out, taking a safety, which resulted in a final score of 14-12 in favor of South Carolina. This unexpected outcome impacted the bettors significantly, with estimates suggesting the safety led to a $30 million loss for gamblers.

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Paul Richard is a professional sports betting and casino content writer with over three years of experience. He provides expert tips, strategies, and betting advice to help bettors succeed.