Strategies for Winning at NFL Long Shot Bets

7 minute read

Long-shot prop bets in NFL football are one of those areas of betting where the potential winning amounts can be significant even with a relatively small bet. This is mainly because of the higher odds associated with unlikely game outcomes. However, there is a lot more to this idea than just betting on far-fetched outcomes, winning on this type of wager is an art that requires a deep understanding of football as well as a great deal of strategic thought. We’ve done some of the hard work for you by taking the guesswork out of the process and telling you exactly what you need to know about successful high-risk NFL prop betting

An image of three NFL players celebrating for the realities of NFL long-shot betting strategies.

Understanding Long-Shot NFL Prop Bets

In order to really understand what a long shot prop bet is, you first have to know about prop bets. An NFL prop bet, short for proposition bet, focuses on outcomes within a game that are not directly tied to the final result or the overall winner. Unlike traditional football betting lines that revolve around point spreads, totals, or outright winners, prop bets depend on specific events or achievements by teams or individual players in a game. These can range from predicting the exact number of touchdowns a player will score to forecasting a safety's occurrence during a game.

What is the Difference Between Ordinary and Long-Shot NFL Prop Bets?

Ordinary NFL Prop Bets are generally centred around more predictable or likely events within a game. These bets might involve scenarios that have a reasonable chance of occurring, based on player statistics, team performance, and other relatively stable factors, and the odds for these wagers are usually more balanced due to the higher probability of these events actually happening. For instance, betting on a prominent quarterback to throw over a certain number of yards or a leading rusher to exceed a specific rushing yard total falls into this category.

Longshot Prop Bets, on the other hand, focus on outcomes that are much less likely to occur, which is reflected in their significantly higher NFL betting odds and potential payouts. These wagers often involve highly specific or unusual scenarios that, while possible, are statistically improbable. Examples of betting on football games in this way might include wagering on a defensive player to score the first touchdown, predicting an exact final score, or wagering on a player to achieve an exceptionally rare statistical feat (such as a kicker making a field goal from 60+ yards).

Due to their lower probability of happening, these types of wagers offer much higher odds, meaning that the financial rewards for winning such a bet can be substantial compared to more traditional bets. However, this also introduces a higher level of risk for bettors with a significant chance of loss.

Notable Examples

Patrick Mahomes throwing over 500 yards: In the 2021 season, Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs threw for over 500 yards. This is a great example of a long-shot prop bet. Such performances are exceptional, causing the odds for this type of bet to be quite high but offering substantial rewards if they come to pass.
Two safeties in a single game: Betting on a specific game to feature exactly two safeties, such as in the case of a defensive showdown between the Chicago Bears and the Green Bay Packers. Given the scarcity of safeties in NFL games historically, this bet would carry high odds as well as a high risk.

The Psychology Behind Long-Shot Prop Bets

For bettors to be able to understand the true probabilities of high risk prop bets, they have to understand and overcome the cognitive biases and emotional processes at play.

Let’s take a closer look at exactly what this involves:

Cognitive Biases and Temptation

Long odds wagers often attract bettors due to certain psychological tendencies that impact decision-making. A common tendency is the overestimation of the possibility for rare events to happen. Essentially, bettors might wrongly assume that unlikely outcomes are more probable than they are in reality. This misjudgment can make the odds of winning these bets appear more appealing than they truly are.

Additionally, there's a phenomenon known as the illusion of control, where people believe they have more influence over the outcome of a bet than is actually the case. In sports betting, this could mean thinking that having a deep knowledge of the sport or a specific team significantly will boost their odds of winning a high-risk bet, despite its unpredictable nature.

Emotional Rollercoaster:

These kinds of wagers also take bettors on an intense emotional journey. Initially, they experience a wave of hope and excitement at the chance to win big. This feeling creates a strong emotional connection to the possible win.

However, these bets usually end in disappointment due to their high-risk nature, with only a small percentage ever ending in a significant payout. This move from a place of high hopes to facing the actual outcomes can be quite a shift which evokes a mix of strong emotions from annoyance to disappointment. Therefore, when placing such a bet it is important to keep one’s expectations low and to practise responsible betting.

Famous NFL Long-Shot Wins

As rare as they are, NFL betting has its share of surprising victories where long-shot prop bets have resulted in significant financial rewards. Let’s take a closer look at a few of these instances:

One of the most unforgettable instances took place during Super Bowl XLVI in 2012, during a match between the New York Giants and the New England Patriots. A particular bettor placed a wager on the game's first score being a safety, an outcome with steep odds, typically found in the range of 50 to 1 or even higher. Remarkably, the game began with Tom Brady being called for intentional grounding in his own end zone, which resulted in a safety. This rare opening score led to a significant payout for the bettor, with reports suggesting that some bets paid out at odds as high as 50 to 1, which would turn even the most modest wager into a hefty sum.

Super Bowl LI offered another good example of a high risk wager paying off in a big way. In this game, the Atlanta Falcons had a huge 28-3 lead over the New England Patriots. At this point, the NFL Super Bowl odds for the Patriots to mount a comeback and win were staggering and reached upwards of 16 to 1. However, there were few bettors that remained unrealistically optimistic about the Patriots’ chances. As the game unfolded, the Patriots made one of the most memorable comebacks in history, ultimately winning 34-28 in overtime. Those who had placed bets on the Patriots' victory were rewarded with substantial payouts.

Now one could easily say that this turnaround was more a matter of luck than anything else, but seasoned bettors would have analysed the Patriot's behaviour as a team and been well aware of their resilience under pressure. So, while luck does play a significant factor in all high-risk prop wagers, successful bets also require strategic thinking, such as analysing team behaviours, player performance trends, and game conditions.

The Flip Side: Long-Shot Bets That Missed the Mark

Despite the successes mentioned above, in most cases, high-risk prop bets do not pan out, and it's important for bettors to know how to effectively manage their expectations and losses.

Let’s take a closer look at a few of these failures

In 2011, a popular story unfolded in the world of sports betting news when a bettor named Pete placed a $10 wager on the Indianapolis Colts ending their season with a 0-16 record, at odds of +100000. If they won Pete would have been awarded $10,000. Pete was so confident about his predictions that he even gave interviews to a number of platforms, including our team at BeyondtheBets.com, in which he explained his reasoning based on the Colts' challenges and Peyton Manning's absence. Unfortunately for Pete, the Colts won two games, disproving Pete's prediction.

This incident illustrates the risks of overconfidence when it comes to betting. It is important for bettors to adopt a well-rounded approach by assessing all potential outcomes

The history of football betting includes several other instances of optimistic yet unsuccessful wagers:

First Touchdown Fumbles: Bets on unlikely first touchdown events, like those from defensive plays, may have tempting sports betting odds but seldom win because they have not happened very often in the past.
Perfect Season Predictions: In 2007, the New England Patriots nearly completed a perfect season, leading to numerous bets on them winning the Super Bowl and finishing undefeated. Their loss in Super Bowl XLII to the New York Giants disappointed those who wagered on this outcome
Record-Breaking Performances: Betting on football players to surpass historical records, such as Adrian Peterson nearly breaking Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record in 2012 but falling short by 9 yards, shows the steep difficulty of such accomplishments.

NFL Long-Shot Prop Bets Strategies

While luck undoubtedly influences the outcome of long-shot prop bets, identifying the best NFL prop bet requires a strategic approach that cannot be understated. It's crucial to approach these opportunities with caution and a well-thought-out strategy.

Comprehensive Research: Detailed research is fundamental, extending beyond player and team statistics to include external factors such as weather conditions, injuries, and team morale. Analysing all available data and acknowledging the unpredictable nature of sports is essential in assessing the likelihood of outcomes accurately. This depth of analysis supports more informed betting decisions.

Setting a Betting Budget: Establishing and sticking to a betting budget is equally important. The possibility of substantial wins can sometimes encourage excessive betting, so it's essential to set financial limits to keep the betting experience enjoyable and not detrimental to your financial stability.

Maintaining a Balanced Perspective: While the prospective rewards are enticing, it's vital not to overlook the risks involved. Making decisions should be a balanced process that weighs both the potential returns and the risks.

Avoid Overconfidence: Betting with confidence and enthusiasm must be grounded in thorough data analysis and an awareness of the inherent unpredictability of all types of sports. Adopting a balanced approach—optimism paired with a realistic evaluation of each bet—enables bettors to make smarter decisions that reflect the actual odds of success.

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Paul Richard is a professional sports betting and casino content writer with over three years of experience. He provides expert tips, strategies, and betting advice to help bettors succeed.