Pittsburgh Pirates MLB Journey Since 2011: Insights & 2024 Predictions for Bettors

12 minute read

After two decades of constant failures, the Pittsburgh Pirates went big on the 2011 MLB draft and aggressive free agency moves in the following years. The results quickly followed as the team terminated a 21-year playoff drought by reaching the National League Division Series in 2013.

The Pirates dropped a 2-1 lead there and got eliminated by the St. Louis Cardinals after defeats in the last two games. They secured the postseason action in the next couple of years as well but only to be eliminated in the NL Wild Card round on both occasions. They’ve not made it to playoffs since.

As things are heating up at the start of the 2024 campaign, we analyze the Pirates’ chances of returning to postseason play. With bountiful MLB baseball betting lines up for grabs every night, you want to increase the chances of getting the best bang for your buck.

One of the key elements for making informed MLB baseball betting predictions is to understand the team dynamics. Bettors frequently ignore factors such as the team's collective effort, strategic synergy, adaptability, resilience, etc. MLB betting experts pay attention to these details and grant themselves a long-term profit.

Pittsburgh Pirates MLB journey since 2011 and 2024 betting predictions featuring a batter swinging.

The Pittsburgh Pirates Since 2011: A Rollercoaster Journey

Key Milestones and Turning Points (2011-2023)

While the two decades since 1992 have brought a continuous descent for the Pirates' faithful, the team's fortunes have changed since 2011. Several reasons have contributed to the sudden growth. The appointment of Clint Hurdle as a new head coach in November 2010 was certainly among the most important ones.

Hurdle brought the winning mentality to the losing Pittsburgh organization. He arrived at PNC Park on the back of winning the American League as a hitting coach of the Texas Rangers. The earlier acquired Andrew McCutchen (the 2005 draft) and Pedro Alvarez (the 2008 draft) have grown into the leaders of the team.

Finally, the aggressive moves in the 2011 draft paid off as the team set the all-time signing bonus record by inking the $8 million deal with the No. 1 draft pick Gerrit Cole. Additional trades and brave free agency moves further strengthened the roster.

The team immediately showed signs of improvement in 2011 and 2012 but late-season collapses prevented them from featuring in the postseason. The end of a 21-year playoff drought came in 2013. The Bucs finished the campaign with 94 wins. They went on to beat the Cincinnati Reds in the NL Wild Card game 6-2 at PNC Park.

Pittsburgh's memorable campaign came to an end via a 2-3 defeat in a National League Division Series against the St. Louis Cardinals. Pittsburgh secured NL Wild Card outings in the following two years as well, only to remain scoreless in the clashes against the eventual World Series champions San Francisco Giants in 2014 and Chicago Cubs in 2015.

The Pirates have failed to make the playoffs since. They further weakened the roster drastically by trading two huge stars Gerrit Cole and Andrew McCutchen in 2018. The younger players they received in return never justified the expectations.

Owner Bob Nutting parted ways with president Frank Coonelly and general manager Neal Huntington in late 2019. Travis Williams and Ben Cherington took the helm as their successors but they are yet to deliver any kind of results.

Statistical Overview: Wins, Losses, and Standings

History is without a doubt a great teacher. It gives us tools to analyze and recognize patterns that could otherwise be invisible in the present. MLB baseball betting wise, it is clever to take notes of certain teams' success in recent years.

Pittsburgh have finished the regular season on a positive record four times since 2011. Three of these four campaigns sent them to the playoffs and they all occurred from 2013 to 2015. The only other positive season happened in 2018 when the Pirates were 82-79.

The team’s two worst campaigns during this span happened in 2021 and 2022 when they lost 101 and 100 games respectively. The Pirates did bounce back to at least some extent last season with a 76-86 record. Can they finally return to winning ways and compete for a playoff spot in 2024?

The Pirates clinched 2nd place in their division in each of their three playoff campaigns in this millennium. They have been better than 4th just once (3rd in 2016) in the remaining 20 seasons since the turn of the century.

With just a single playoff series win since 1992, it is hard to favor the Pirates in MLB betting predictions for 2024. That said, there is more to MLB betting than statistics. Let's see if any signs are pointing towards the big turnaround this year.

Analyzing the Pirates’ Performance Trends

Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis

Pittsburgh started last year on a 20-8 record while managing a 31-28 run in the final two months of the campaign. The problems occurred amid the season as a massive slump in form resulted in a 78-86 record at the end. It was still 14 wins better than the 2022 campaign.

This might be a controversial take but the Pirates have shown potential to compete for the NL Central. They just need consistency. Can they play baseball for six full months instead of just three this time around?

The main element to improve in 2024 is offense, namely batting percentages. This is where we come to arguably the team’s main star Ke’Bryan Hayes. Hayes exquisitely ended last year, hitting .307 and managing 13 home runs with a .862 OPS in 71 outings from June to the end of the season.

He translated this form into the spring preseason action, delivering 21 hits in the Grapefruit League. Nonetheless, Hayes is nowhere near these numbers at the start of the 2024 season. A batting average of .248 and just a single home run on 31 starts is well below par for an All-Star caliber.

As a consequence, the Pirates are 24th in the nation in batting average (.224) and runs (130), as well as 27th in home runs (27) after 36 inaugural games of the 2024 campaign. While there is a lot of room for improvement in this department, starting pitching has stepped up big time in the first couple of months of 2024.

The Pirates are inside the Top 10 in MLB in ERA (.357), WHIP (1.18), and batting average against (.224) after the maiden 36 matches of the season. Getting the ball to the bullpen is probably the biggest strength of this team and even here the Pirates could be even more lethal moving forward with the potential inclusion of the No.1 draft pick Paul Skenes.

Impact Players and Future Stars

The key man in the Pirates' pitching rotation is Mitch Keller. The team signed a new five-year contract extension with a right-hander in February this year. Mitch set the club's record for the most strikeouts in a season last year, managing a total of 210. Such brilliant performances have also earned him his maiden appearance at the All-Star game in 2023.

Keller got off to a fine start to the new season. He is 3-3 from 8 starts. However, he does not top most of the team’s significant pitching stats. Rookie Jared Jones does so instead. In his first professional season in the league, Jared is ranked in the top five in the nation in crucial parameters such as WHIP and strikeouts.

If he continues to post such incredible numbers, Jones is a legitimate Rookie of the Year candidate this season. With Martin Perez as another reliable option on the mound and Paul Skenes as the No. 1 draft pick in 2023 waiting for a call-up, we are very excited about the pitching prospects of this team.

The Pirates are struggling badly in offense at the beginning of the season but they do possess enough firepower on display to turn things around over the summer. The team’s main star Ke’Bryan Hayes can and will step up. He delivered fantastic numbers in last year's run-in as well as during the preseason this spring.

Moving forward, if Oneil Cruz stays healthy throughout the season, he can easily manage 30+ home runs and 30+ steals. He missed the entire last year through an ankle injury but looks fit at the start of the new season. His potential uptick in form would address the Pirates’ main holes in the roster (a leadoff hitter and a shortstop).

Technological Advancements in Analyzing Team Performance

The Role of Data Analytics in MLB

The application of analytics has become a trademark for many industries and businesses all over the globe. Sports do not represent an exception. The data-driven approach to making decisions and changing team strategies has affected baseball like no other sport.

To stay competitive, all teams must utilize metrics such as earned run average (ERA), slugging percentage (SLG), or on-base percentage (OBP). It has simply become standard and it affects everyone related to baseball.

Coaches use these tools to shape in-game strategies, journalists utilize them to discuss player and team ratings, and punters find them essential for their MLB betting systems. While some traditionalists still fancy the eye test, nobody can deny the positive effects introduced by quantitative analytics.

Predictive Models and Betting: A New Era

Data analyses provide bountiful opportunities for deploying successful MLB betting strategies. To implement them, bettors need access to comprehensive and reliable statistical sources. Luckily, we live in the digital age, meaning all the information we need is just a couple of clicks away.

Best MLB betting sites offer vast baseball databases on teams, players, and distinct performance standards. Data helps both bettors and analysts with their forecasts.

That said, the most successful MLB betting experts always combine data analysis with many different factors such as the latest injury news, weather conditions, or a significant change recognizable via the eye test only.

A perfect example of how to combine historical data with current form can be applied to Ke’Bryan Hayes. He ended last season on a high and posted tremendous numbers during the preseason campaign in the spring. A standard MLB sportsbook has his full data at his disposal.

The sportsbook will set a hefty price tag on Hayes not to register a hit during any regular season game in 2014. Bettors know about his fantastic statistical parameters from last season but also see that he is currently miles away from his best form. They hit the Under pick at have the odds on their side.

The 2024 MLB Season: What to Expect from the Pittsburgh Pirates

Offseason Moves and Team Composition

The Pirates’ lengthy rebuild brought some notable positives last year despite the team marking their 5th straight losing campaign. A 76-86 record beats the previous two campaigns by some distance. The fans kind of hoped for an aggressive push on the back of such a season but the Pirates opted for a modest approach in the winter instead.

Pittsburgh signed a couple of veterans to an inexperienced pitching rotation. Fans were originally skeptical about the additions of Martin Perez and Marco Gonzales. Nevertheless, they both got off to a strong start at PNC Park.

Following the departure of Carlos Santana, the Pirates were also in the market for a first baseman. They ended up with Rowdy Tellez who is a solid pickup at $3.2 million despite coming off a down year.

We have to mention the return of franchise legend Andrew McCutchen. The Pirates also improved their bullpen by signing Aroldis Chapman in a $10.5 million deal, their largest offseason move. Additionally, Pittsburgh acquired Michael A. Taylor for a shockingly low $4 million sum.

With Jack Suwinski and Bryan Reynolds in the corners, they now have a reliable defense across all three spots. Last but not least, Mitch Keller’s $77 million five-year extension represents the biggest offseason deal for the Pirates. To sum it all up, the focus is still on the future. Could this roster cause damage this year, though? Absolutely yes.

The Competitive Landscape of the NL Central

Milwaukee Brewers comfortably won the NL Central with a 92-70 record last year. They have traded away their ace and got younger since which is why we might see a much more competitive landscape in this division in 2024.

Both Cincinnati and Pittsburgh can break through with their young rosters. The Cubs came second last time out and they entered the 2024 campaign practically unchanged. The Cardinals kept their key figures in the offseason while adding the starting pitching depth along the way. They hope to bounce back from a subpar 71-91 2023 season.

While most analysts share love for Milwaukee and Chicago, all five NL Central teams can compete in what could easily be the tightest division race in the MLB.

Betting on the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2024: Strategies and Tips

Understanding the Odds: A Guide for Bettors

With a stacked season of games, betting on MLB offers a wide array of opportunities for punters seeking both daily entertainment and long-term profit. MLB betting is fairly simple.

Bettors have the option to place a wager on the winner of the game, different propositions such as the number of runs, or other events that happen during the match.

Season-long events and MLB player prop bets have also gained a lot of popularity among bettors in recent years. Here is the breakthrough of the most common MLB sports betting markets in 2024:

Moneyline
Run Line
Totals
Team Props
Player Props
Other Props

The best MLB betting advice we can give you is to watch games and combine your eye-test conclusions with relevant statistical parameters to make an informed pick. Generally speaking, the value is with the underdogs. Sportsbooks tend to offer worse odds on popular teams and brands such as the Dodgers or the Yankees and you should generally avoid them in your picks.

The Pirates are a streaky team. Track their performances. As soon as you notice any kind of pattern (i.e. Ke’Bryan Hayes’ rise in form), do not hesitate to exploit it. The oddsmakers are usually slow to react to the individual shifts in displays. Bettors can exploit it via any of the aforementioned markets, MLB prop bets in particular.

Prediction Models for the 2024 Season

Baseball aficionados did not trust the Pirates going into 2024. It is easy to understand why, following five successive losing-record campaigns. Nevertheless, we feel the Steel City boys will have something to say this year.

Last season’s data suggests that the offense was the weakest part of the team. We've noticed the same trend at the beginning of the 2024 campaign. The Pirates are currently 24th offense in MLB. Last year, they were 25th.

That said, Oneil Cruz played only nine games last year. He tops the team stats with 5 home runs in 36 starts. Bryan Reynolds is the outfit’s leader in hits and RBI and that says a lot about Pittsburgh’s performances. Ke’Bryan Hayes is nowhere near his best these days. If he finds his rhythm, and historical data suggests that he should do so, we are suddenly looking at a much stronger offensive lineup.

Things look much more promising in terms of pitching. Mitch Keller is the team’s ace who entered the season off the back of a career year with 3.3 fWAR. Jared Jones exploded in the offseason. He did not allow a single earned run in Spring Training. He has translated this form into the regular season. Jared leads the Pirates in ERA (2.63) and strikeouts (52) after 36 matches.

When it comes to the Pirates, models mainly point towards low-scoring games. Backing Unders in Pittsburgh’s games is among the most popular MLB betting trends these days. We can’t argue against it, at least not until Hayes and company find their offensive rhythm.

Conclusion

Baseball fans in the Steel City have gone through a lot over the last several decades. The 2011 rebuild has brought three subsequent playoff appearances to the organization. However, a single postseason series win since 1992 by no means meets the fans’ desires.

Last year marked the Pirates’ fifth consecutive season with a losing record. The team is currently in another rebuild process and they were surprisingly shy in the 2024 offseason. While there is not much to suggest better days in 2024, we feel this group of players can terminate the negative trend and finish the season with a positive record.

That said, please do not back the Pirates until you see the turnaround in their form. They are statistically among the worst offensive teams in the nation. You either look elsewhere for now or simply stick to the Totals markets and chase the Unders.

Either way, make sure to conduct a comprehensive analysis before placing any pick. That is the only route to long-term profit in MLB betting.

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Paul Richard is a professional sports betting and casino content writer with over three years of experience. He provides expert tips, strategies, and betting advice to help bettors succeed.