Betting on the Underdog: Remarkable Betting Wins at the British Open

5 minute read

The British Open was established in 1860 in Scotland and is a pinnacle event in the world of golf betting as the oldest golf tournament. It is also one of the four major annual golf championships. Originally, the tournament was hosted solely at Prestwick Golf Club, the championship now rotates among several prestigious courses, including St. Andrew’s and Muirfield. This historic event has seen its fair share of surprises, with unexpected winners and highlights the unpredictable nature of golf odds which can turn even the most modest bets into substantial wins.

Close-up of a underdog golfer's hand gripping a golf club, ready to hit a ball at the British Open.

Golf Betting Odds: Unpredictable Wins

Golf differs greatly from other sports due to its inherent unpredictability, as its outcomes are significantly influenced by a number of factors including course conditions, the weather and the mental resilience of players, and this allows knowledgeable bettors to maximise their wins by choosing to bet on golf underdogs.

Notable Instances of Unpredictability:

1999 Open Championship: Jean van de Velde’s unexpected collapse on the final hole, led to a playoff loss.
2003 Open Championship: Ben Curtis, a 300-1 outsider, won the Claret Jug at Royal St. George's on his major debut.
2016 Open Championship: Henrik Stenson set a record score of 20-under par in a victory over Phil Mickelson at Royal Troon.

Historic Underdog Victories at the British Open

The Open Championship has witnessed some of the most remarkable underdog victories in golf history. These instances not only shocked the golf world but also delivered substantial payouts for those who wagered on them.

Notable Underdog Triumphs since 2000 and their golf tournament odds:

Louis Oosthuizen, 2010: +20000: A $100 bet would have won $20,000.

With odds of +20000, Oosthuizen's win is the epitome of underdog success. With an impressive 65 in the opening round, he led throughout the tournament to finish at 16-under-par. His performance improved his world ranking from 54th to 15th.

Darren Clarke, 2011: +15000: A $100 bet would have won $15,000.

Clarke's victory at +15000 odds made him the oldest champion since 1967. His consistent performance culminated in a final day even-par 70, and he secured a three-stroke win over his prominent competitors at Royal St. George’s.

Stewart Cink, 2009: +12500: A $100 bet would have won $12,500.

Facing odds of +12500, Cink birdied the 18th hole at Turnberry, which enabled him to break par in the final round and ultimately claim victory.

Brian Harman, 2023: +12000: A $100 bet would have won $12,000.

With odds of +12000 at the 151st Open Championship at Royal Liverpool, Hamon led after 36 holes and finished the tournament at -13, six strokes ahead of the runner-up.

Zach Johnson, 2015: +8000: A $100 bet would have won $8,000.

Johnson's win at St. Andrews, with +8000 odds, came after a dramatic playoff against Jordan Spieth.

Ernie Els, 2012: +4000:A $100 bet would have won $4,000.

Despite being a favourite in previous years, Els went into the Open with odds at +4000 odds. His critical birdie on the 18th hole secured his fourth major win.

Most Unpredictable British Open Golf Betting Wins

The British Open has provided some remarkable wins for bettors who placed their stakes on unlikely champions.

McIlroy's Predicted Triumph: A standout story in the British Open's betting history is Rory McIlroy's victory in 2014. This win turned a decade-old bet into a massive $342,000 payout for his father and three friends. Gerry McIlroy, Rory's father, placed a 400-pound bet at 500/1 odds a decade earlier on the belief that Rory would win the Open Championship before the age of 26.
Els's Unexpected Comeback: Ernie Els won the Championship at Royal Lytham and St Annes, coming from six shots behind to take the Claret Jug and a prize of $1.452 million. However, Els wasn't the only winner that day, as one bettor placed an unlikely $70 bet on Ernie Els to win at 469-to-1 odds when Adam Scott was leading by four shots with just four holes remaining. However, Scott struggled in the final holes, and Els was victorious, resulting in a payout of $32,830 for the bettor.
Hamilton's Surprise Victory: In 2004 when Todd Hamilton, a relatively unknown American golfer at the time, won the British Open at Royal Troon. Hamilton was considered a long shot with pre-tournament golf odds set at 150/1, and his win was a shock to many. One particular bettor, however, saw potential in Hamilton’s steady play and placed a £100 bet on him which resulted in a £15,000 payout.
Ben Curtis's 2003 Cinderella Story: Perhaps one of the most astonishing upsets in British Open history occurred in 2003 when Ben Curtis made his debut ranked 396th and won the tournament at Royal St George's. Curtis's odds were set at a staggering 300/1 before the start, and one lucky bettor who placed a £5 bet on Curtis walked away with £1,500.

Golf Betting Strategies: How to Win By Betting on the British Open Underdog

Betting on the underdog is as much an art as it is a science, and it requires detailed strategies to identify a potential winner. Here are a few factors you should consider:

In-depth Player Performance Analysis

It is important to take a detailed look at a player's historical performance to identify the potential for a big win bet. This means looking beyond general statistics to analyse how a player has performed at previous British Opens or on other courses with unique challenges due to their coastal locations and unpredictable weather. A player in good recent form who also has a solid record at the Open could be undervalued in the market.

Key Factors to Evaluate:

Past Open Championship finishes
Recent performance trends on links courses
Historical response to adverse weather conditions

Weather Conditions and Course Configuration

The Open's links courses, with their rolling fairways, deep bunkers, and close proximity to the sea, demand a specific skill set. The variable weather can transform the course’s difficulty from one day to the next. It is important to analyse how players have performed in past windy or rainy conditions to get a better insight into their potential performance at The Open.

Course Insights:

Wind effect: Players with a low ball flight might have an advantage in windy conditions.
Rain impact: Wet conditions can benefit strong ball strikers and players with excellent short games.

Diversified Betting Portfolio

Spreading bets across multiple underdogs and disciplined bet sizing can increase the chances of a significant win.

Portfolio Management:

Bet sizing: Adjust wager sizes based on the level of risk associated with each bet.
Market value: Look for discrepancies in golf odds that might indicate an undervalued player.

2024 British Open Latest Golf Odds

The opening round of the 2024 British Open is set for Thursday, July 18, 2024, at Royal Troon in Troon, South Ayrshire, Scotland.

Player Odds Scottie Scheffler +550 Rory McIlroy +800 Jon Rahm +1000 Viktor Hovland +1400 Cameron Smith +1800 Ludvig Aberg +1800 Jordan Spieth +2200 Cameron Young +2600 Patrick Cantlay +2600 Tommy Fleetwood +2600 Xander Schauffele +2600 Brooks Koepka +2900 Collin Morikawa +2900 Max Homa +3100 Shane Lowry +3100 Joaquin Niemann +3300 Will Zalatoris +3300 Rickie Fowler +3300 Wyndham Clark +3300 Tom Kim +3400 Justin Thomas +3400 Tyrrell Hatton +3400 Hideki Matsuyama +3400 Matt Fitzpatrick +3400 Dustin Johnson +3400 Min Woo Lee +4100 Jason Day +4200 Tony Finau +4200

Golf Betting Predictions: Our Top Underdog Pick:

In our opinion, even a successful modest bet on Bryson DeChambeau, with odds of +5000 would result in a significantly high payout. Here is why he is our top pick:

DeChambeau is known for his unique approach to the game, focusing on the science of ball flight and distance. This innovative and aggressive playing style has led to significant victories in his career, including a U.S. Open title. His ability to drive the ball long distances can be a considerable advantage on longer courses like Royal Troon.
Even though the Open Championship’s links-style courses can challenge every aspect of a player's game, DeChambeau's power and improving short game can turn into a formidable asset, especially if tough weather conditions become a factor.

Conclusion

By now it's clear that the British Open has the capacity to deliver unexpected outcomes, with remarkable victories from underdog competitors such as Darren Clarke and Louis Oosthuizen. The tournament's unpredictability and demanding courses offer the chance of big wins for golf bettors who are willing to identify undervalued players that might outperform expectations.

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Paul Richard is a professional sports betting and casino content writer with over three years of experience. He provides expert tips, strategies, and betting advice to help bettors succeed.